Get Ready for a Bull Run, Says Curran Investment Management

gavrilovaefivu.blogspot.com
June 5 /PRNewswire/ -- Curran Investment Managemen believes recent equity performance is predicting the beginning of anothet historicbull market, a bull market that will produce extraordinary long-term results. The worst ten year periode for US equity performancw dating backto 1880, ended in 2008. Domestic and internationalp economic newsis dismal. Investors worldwide have professed their lack of faithy by flooding the fixed income markets searching for a safe We believe similar periods of market behavior can help predict what will happehfrom here. We are optimistic for future equith returns and believe the risk paradignhas shifted.
A long-term equity investment today has less historicall risk and higher probable return than perhapws any periodsince 1880. Ten Year Rolling What?? We have prepared an exhaustive analysis of historicap equity market data returnzs based on ten year rolling returnws datingto 1880. Using single perioed (one year, three year) returh data to decipher historical trends presentsa problem. Any one year of returbn data is impacted by micro economic factors that are unique to that given year and may not relate toa long-term economi c cycle (example: September 11, 2001 market Using a ten year rolling average, (previous ten year cycld for each year evaluated) allows us to illustrate and predic t based on broad market reactions to the longer term economic cycle.
The goal is to identifu common market trends that have existed in multiple periodds of varying fiscal and monetart policy and during varying domestic and internationaleconomic climates. Why Are We Optimistic We have just liverd through the worst ten year period for equitu returnssince 1880. If we compare five similar periodxsince 1880, each period has been followed by a ten year perioe that has achieved annualized doubled digit returns. These periods have triggered the beginninhgof long-term bull markets that have seen investorse experience 20% annualized investment returns at their An investor would have receivede a 20% investment return for ten years straight.
Simply put, we have been through the worst ten yearperiodr ever. Similar periods, no matter what economix climate, have bred new bull markets that producedoutstandin long-term results for investors. ? We think we are close to the beginninh of theBull Run, but the timingv is difficult to predict. In the previous ten year periodws following thedismal returns, yearsd three, four, and five have averaged the greatestf rebound. Earlier years have seen some sideways while later years have tapered off in the acceleration of The equity markets have historically reboundes much faster than theoverall economy.
Once an economic rebounfd is clear, we usually have alreaduy experienced the largest percentagw increases inequity prices. Why Do We Thinkl The Risk ParadigmHas Shifted? Afte the carnage of the 2008 equity the ten year numbet dipped into the negativre zone. There have been four previou times when thishas occurred; we call them market "troughs" (the period of time the averags stays in the negative zone). Some of thesse troughs admittedly last for overa However, equity market performance during theses "trough" periods is relatively neutral.
Prolonged sharp declinesz once we enterthese "trough" periods are not Based on historical data the real risk is we are enteringh a long-term consolidation/sideways period. This risk has historically producedd greater than evenequity returns. Curran Investmentg Management currently managesover $180 milliojn in client assets. The firm provides comprehensive wealth managemenyt services to includeinvestment management, retirement and estatre planning, insurance and a broad range of financial solutions. In addition to theif headquartersin Albany, New the firm has officews in Cape May, New Jersey and Contact: Thomas J. Curran President tcurran@curranllc.
com Andresw Black Wealth ManagementStrategist (518) 391-4200 ablack@curranllc.com